New Delhi, Feb 4 (AP\/UNB)- Nearly three years ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a sweeping national election victory with promises to develop the economy and root out corruption. But with a series of key state elections beginning Saturday, Modi\u2019s popularity \u2014 and his surprise currency decree that sparked months of financial uproar \u2014 is about to be tested.India is just emerging from the fallout of the November decision, which withdrew India\u2019s two-largest currency notes from circulation and caused weeks of chaos as people waited to get their money back in new bills.
\nModi and his Bharatiya Janata Party hailed the move as a way to curb tax fraud and corruption and push India toward more digital spending. Opponents say it was a self-inflicted blow on the world\u2019s fastest growing economy, causing enormous hardship for the vast majority of Indians, who rely often completely on cash.
\nWhile the five state elections will not decide whether Modi remains in office, a loss would be seen as a serious blow to his political image. Most important is northern Uttar Pradesh state, whose immense population of 204 million people means state elections often help shape the national political agenda.
\n\u201cIn these elections, Uttar Pradesh is the real biggie,\u201d said Ajoy Bose, a political analyst in New Delhi.
\n\u201cIf the BJP were to lose in Uttar Pradesh, it would be a huge setback, both for the party and for Modi. It would destroy the myth of Modi, who has been projected as this political juggernaut of invincible proportions,\u201d Bose said.
\nThe elections begin Saturday in the northern state of Punjab and the beach resort state of Goa. The Himalayan state of Uttarakhand votes on Feb. 15, and remote northeastern Manipur votes on March 4 and 8.
\nElections in northern Uttar Pradesh begin on Feb. 11, but because of the state\u2019s size, voting is divided into seven phases. Results from all the elections will be declared on March 11.
\nIn 2014, the BJP had won an overwhelming 71 out of 80 parliamentary seats in Uttar Pradesh, or 15 percent of all national legislators in the powerful lower house, ensuring that it emerged as the single largest party in Parliament.
\nBut Modi now faces a tough fight in Uttar Pradesh, with the state\u2019s current top official, Akhilesh Yadav, in a political alliance with the Congress Party led by Rahul Gandhi, scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family that ruled India for decades. While the Congress Party is a shadow of its former self, it remains the country\u2019s second most popular. The alliance is seen as a way to boost the chances of Yadav\u2019s Samajwadi Party while the Congress tries to remain relevant in a politically key state.
\nAll those candidates must also face Mayawati, a former chief minister of the state and a master of caste-based politics. Mayawati, who uses only one name, is a Dalit, the name given to the lowest rung of India\u2019s caste hierarchy. She commands strong support among the state\u2019s Dalits, who form more than one-fifth of the population.
\nUttar Pradesh voters are divided over the currency withdrawal, analysts say.
\n\u201cPeople in rural areas of the state saw the currency withdrawal as an equalizer, where the rich and the poor were hit by the same shortage of currency notes,\u201d said Nomita P. Kumar, an economist at the Giri Institute of Development Studies, a think tank in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh\u2019s capital. \u201cPoor people were happy that, for once, the rich were in the same boat as themselves. They think it was a smart move by Modi to curb corruption.\u201d
\nNot so in Punjab, where the ruling coalition of the BJP and the regional Shiromani Akali Dal party face the twin challenges of a strong anti-incumbency sentiment and a palpable anger against the chaos unleashed by the currency withdrawal. Voters appeared to hold Modi responsible for the economic disruption that followed the abrupt removal of currency.
\n\u201cThe people\u2019s anger is directed against Modi and this will be reflected in the way they vote,\u201d said Bose, who returned Tuesday from a trip through that state.
\nThe BJP-led coalition also faces a strong challenge from the upstart Aam Aadmi Party, or Common Man Party, which has tapped into the voters\u2019 disappointment with the state government.
\nIn Goa, the ruling BJP was beset with divisions among its political allies, while the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress were also putting up a strong fight.
\nModi\u2019s performance in the current state-level elections is also likely to determine his political strategy in the run-up to the next national elections due in 2019, when he is hoping to wrest a second term in office, analysts said.
\n\u201cThis makes the outcome so important. It could be a make-or-break election for Modi,\u201d said Bose.
\nThe state elections are also significant for their power to help elect a new president. While the Indian presidency is largely ceremonial, it is a very high profile position and the president can wield significant power in times of political crisis.
\nThe current president is Pranab Mukherjee, a Congress Party stalwart, whose term ends in July. Presidents are elected by a combination of national and state lawmakers. For Modi to bring in his own president, he needs to win Uttar Pradesh and at least one other state.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
New Delhi, Feb 4 (AP\/UNB)- Nearly three years ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a sweeping national election victory with promises to develop the economy and root out corruption. But with a series of key state elections beginning Saturday, Modi’s popularity — and his surprise currency decree that sparked months of financial uproar — is about to be tested.India is just emerging from the fallout of the November decision, which withdrew India’s two-largest currency notes from circulation and caused weeks of chaos as people waited to get their money<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":5533,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[30,19],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5531"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5531"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5531\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5534,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5531\/revisions\/5534"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5533"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}