Key industries in Bangladesh and other Commonwealth nations could take massive hits if appropriate steps are not taken following Britain\u2019s departure from the European Union (EU), policy experts\u2019 analysis made this forecast in two new research papers over so-called Brexit.<\/p>\n
The analysis is part of the secretariat\u2019s peer reviewed \u2018Trade Hot Topics\u2019 series. The latest papers suggest that the uncertainties caused by Brexit may weaken the chances of world economic recovery. This in turn will have severe implications for many developing and so- called least developed countries or LDCs.<\/p>\n
The EU provides special trade deals to support these vulnerable countries, using often complex mechanisms. Razzaque warns that if equivalent provisions are not provided while the UK leaves the EU, it could mean additional annual export duties of more than 600 million pound sterling for these countries.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor 36 Commonwealth developing countries, this potential tax hike could be as high as one percent of their total exports to the UK,\u201d he said. \u201cFor the likes of Bangladesh, Mauritius, Seychelles and Swaziland this could be more than 10 per cent,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
\u201cLet\u2019s take Bangladesh as an example,\u201d said Razzaque. \u201cUnless similar EU trade preferences are maintained by the UK, Bangladesh will have to pay 220 million in tariffs to UK customs. That would put even more pressure on the four million, mainly women, workers facing already appalling conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n
Strong historical ties mean at least 20 Commonwealth developing countries rely on the UK for 10 per cent or more in trade. The UK is often a niche market in certain sectors.<\/p>\n
Razzaque warns, \u201cMore than 80 per cent of St Lucia\u2019s exports, mainly bananas, to the EU is bound for the UK. Remember that the country\u2019s banana industry has witnessed tremendous competitive pressure. Unless it secures the same level of market access provision as in the EU, post-Brexit trading could deal a further blow to the sector. Similarly, Fiji, a Pacific Island state, sources almost two-thirds of its European export from the UK alone. In 2014, 95 per cent of Fiji\u2019s exports to the UK was raw sugar.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Commonwealth\u2019s developing countries export a total of about 25 billion pound sterling to the UK. A weak pound, following the Brexit referendum, will have resulted in a significant loss in export value for these countries.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not just trade Brexit will affect,\u201d Razzaque said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe impact of a weaker pound will affect overseas aid from the UK. So imagine a 10 per cent depreciation of sterling. $20 billion UK aid is only worth $18 billion. Think about how that extra $2 billion could have been spent. We\u2019re talking about here, among other things, the UK\u2019s helping 13.4 million people with emergency food assistance and supporting 11 million children with their education in the past five years,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
But all is not lost. The Secretariat\u2019s policy papers have used scenario analysis to produce four options which could help avoid the most vulnerable countries being put at risk. According to one of the papers, the UK\u2019s commitment to promoting trade-led development has been globally influential. It has always recognised and championed the special needs and challenges facing such vulnerable country groups as the LDCs, sub-Saharan Africa and small states.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe UK is one of the few high-income countries which fulfils the UN target of providing 0.7 per cent of gross national income as overseas development assistance\u201d, Razzaque pointed out.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s in this spirit that the UK\u2019s newfound trade policy sovereignty should result in continuity and improvements over the currently existing trade preferences for vulnerable countries,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Key industries in Bangladesh and other Commonwealth nations could take massive hits if appropriate steps are not taken following Britain’s departure from the European Union (EU), policy experts’ analysis made this forecast in two new research papers over so-called Brexit. “Brexit is a journey into unknown trading arrangements, both for the UK dealing with the EU, and the UK’s trading relationship with a large number of developing countries. Many have benefited from EU trade preferences,” said Mohammad Razzaque, head of the secretariat’s international trade policy section. The analysis is part<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2178,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2177"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2177"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2179,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2177\/revisions\/2179"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2178"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banglanewsus.com\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}